Tips for Week 7 NFL picks How to bet tea
GΓΆnderilme zamanΔ±: 12 Haz 2023, 07:12
The casual bettor loves to play teams coming off a bye. The thinking is simple: When Orlando Cepeda Jersey a team has an extra week to rest, to heal up, and to prepare for their next matchup, they should have the edge coming into a game where the other team is on regular rest, might be dealing with more injuries and only has one week to prepare to face the rested team.In practice, however, playing teams off a bye isn't nece sarily profitable. If you look at of teams coming off bye, which gives each team at least seven data points to analyze, you'll see that only 11 teams are covering more than 50 percent of the time, while 14 teams are below 50 percent ATS (the other seven are, of course, right at 50 percent). This year we've seen four teams come off a bye and fail to cover in Weeks 5 and 6.Two of the 11 teams that have been profitable plays off a bye are the and , both of whom are coming off a Week 6 bye. The Saints are tied for the best ATS record off a bye since 2011 at 6-1, while the Lions are just a game back at 5-2. So you should play both this week, right? Not quite.We know what we're getting from the Saints. Sean Payton has been the coach there for a long time, and has been his quarterback for our entire sample. The team's average margin of victory over the last seven years off a bye is 6.9 points, and they beat the spread by an average of 4.4 points. Even on the road against a good team in Baltimore this week, history is on the Saints' side, and this year's version has been rolling after a shaky start to the season. The Lions, however, have a new coach in Matt Patricia, and we can't make any a sumptions about how he'll respond to playing with an extra week of preparation. We do know the Lions entered the bye off a big win at home against the , but that was a game where they didn't look great despite the final score, with the offense managing by far its worst yardage output of the year and the defense giving up more than 100 yards more than its previous worst. We also know that Patricia's team didn't look ready to play at all in Week 1 despite having weeks of lead time to Julio Teheran Jersey prepare for his coaching debut. When the Lions do win off a bye, the games tend to be very close as well, and as a result they have a negative margin of victory off a bye since 2011 despite being 5-2 ATS.The Lions might be coming off a bye, but they're in a tough position of being a road favorite against a team that's good at home, and one that proved last week it can win with its backup quarterback on the field. I wouldn't be rushing to the window to play Detroit off the bye, but the trends back up rolling with the Saints.If you want to know which sides I like this week, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with my five SuperContest picks each week and plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on . Each week in this space, I'm going to go behind the lines and picks to bring you a bit of a deeper dive into what you should know before locking in your plays. That includes which lines are on the move, which home-field advantages aren't getting enough credit, which injuries you should be monitoring, my top teaser play of the week and plenty more.Let's get to it.My picksOver at SportsLine, for Week 7, and I'll have plenty more by Friday night. Join now and and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest picks each Saturday.However, you can get one free pick with my teaser of the week at the end of this article. Enjoy! Biggest line moves vs. -6.5 at -7.5Saints at -2.5 -10 at 49ers at -6The Chargers easily took care of busine s in Cleveland last week, while the Titans offense couldn't get anything going against the Ravens. So it makes sense that this line would move from a lookahead number of Chargers -3 up Phil Niekro Jersey 3.5 points. But you have to ask yourself: is this more reflective of the overall value of these teams, or was that Chargers -3 number closer on a neutral field?The line has understandably moved away from the Bills with the news that is out and the recently-signed is starting in his place. Anderson has ties to Sean McDermott through their time in Carolina, but that has nothing to do with the offense he'll be running this Sunday, since McDermott coached the defense with the . Saints-Ravens was a pick 'em on the lookahead line, but after Baltimore laid it to Tenne see last week, Vegas is now seeing this teams as close to even. I've been touting the Ravens all year and have a ticket on them to make the playoffs and another to win the Super Bowl at 50/1, but this doesn't seem like a great spot for them with New Orleans coming off the bye.The 49ers gave the Packers everything they had on Monday night and Vegas certainly took note, knocking this game down from a lookahead number of Rams -12.5. The Atlanta Braves Jersey Rams were unable to cover on the first two legs of their three-game road trip, but Baltimore showed last week that you don't nece sarily want to autofade a team playing a third straight road game.The Giants laid a dud last Thursday, and with the Falcons finally finding a way to win, this week's Monday night game saw a big move off the lookahead line of Falcons -3.5. Considering the Giants haven't looked completely lost on offense the entire year and the Falcons are playing half their second unit on defense, that might end up being a bit too aggre sive. The DVOA edge -1 at +3 vs. Panthers +4.5 at +3 vs. +5 at Ravens -2.5 vs. SaintsGiants +6 at FalconsOne of the things I like to look for when di secting matchups is one where the Football Outsiders DVOA doesn't agree with the betting line. I don't have a specific formula, but my standard is basically four points of DVOA for every point on the neutral-field line, though once the line gets big enough I think it's more like five points of DVOA. Rather than use the regular DVOA numbers, for this Scott Kazmir Jersey exercise I first use DAVE (which incorporates preseason projections) and then weighted DVOA, to get a better sense of each team's value at the point of the season where I need to know it rather than as a whole. For example, the Broncos are one-point favorites in Arizona. DVOA shows a ma sive difference between the two teams, about 23 percentage points. That would make the line around Broncos -5.5 or -6 on a neutral field. When factoring in the 2.5 points of home-field advantage I give to Arizona, that suggests the line should be Broncos -3 or -3.5. At least where DVOA is concerned, the edge goes to the Broncos on the current line.DVOA basically sees no difference in the overall values of the two teams in the Patriots-Bears, Vikings-Jets and Jaguars-Texans matchups, yet the line is giving a clear edge to one side, putting a lot of value on the home 'dogs in the first two cases and the Jaguars in the other. The Panthers h